May 13th. The information being thrown around is an absolute overload on all sides, from all perspectives, leaving people who don't have a strong background in health, immunology, virology, epidemiology, or economics... wondering what to think.
Philosophy. Your health decisions always start with philosophy. I have written many pages on this topic over the last two decades, as it has become increasingly clear that the first reason why people should fall on one side of the fence, or the other, is based on their beliefs coming into any health discussion.
For example. I believe we are created. Though it doesn't necessarily have an impact on what we know to be true, it definitely has an impact on what we think MIGHT be true. I believe that God created Adam, and from there we have all been born. Therefore, my belief is that the best version of humanity, started from the hand of God, and we have since become less and less functional, and have fallen further from that original man. If you believe we formed from an amoeba, and then at some point primates were the first man, it would make sense that you believe we are continually getting better and better over time, thus science, technology and the rise of man is what will equate to better health and ultimately the best version of man.
Philosophy makes a HUGE difference in how you look at where we are right now, and it is why in the end, any truly thinking individual, will respect the rights that I have, that you have, or that anybody has, to make their own decisions regarding their health.
So as it relates to Covid-19. It appears as though the rise in cases from the end of the shelter in place order, might come a little slower than what many of the "experts" thought, including myself, however it is early to tell what the true outcome will be. It is possible that this virus is less resilient to warmer weather than what anybody thought, and we could see the decline come swiftly.
In addition, it is possible that the virus has spread significantly in our country since early January or late December, thus greater immunity will have been achieved. I ordered antibody tests well over a month ago, but as they sit in customs, I miss out on an opportunity to bring these results to the market, but other companies are reporting results. Thus far it seems like the spread in GA has been minimal, which is too bad. I have been hopeful that we would see many positive results. Meanwhile, in California and New York, it appears as though there are many positive results out there in the community.
Continuing to cloud the understanding of what comes next with Covid-19? Let me make this perfectly clear now. The one thing that is definite, regardless of the cloud of doubt that anybody casts on it. Children have extremely low risk. No matter what you read about Kawasaki-like disease happening among children, this is still representative of an extremely low level of risk, and we should feel confident in that. Adults over the age of 80 have the highest risk, but still, all results point to that risk being significantly dependent on co-morbidities. Do you have diabetes or heart disease? Do you have a history of cancer and weakened immunity? These matter... a co-morbidity does not appear to be "colds always go to my lungs". Over the age of 65 are also a higher risk, but a factor of ten less at risk than those over 80... which means a lot.
The only way the group of people over 80 who are at risk, will be able to come out into the world at low risk, will be if a significant number of people in the low-risk profile get this illness, and get it fast. Will they even know? Only with positive antibody tests which are currently being considered highly suspect when it comes to accuracy. So... what do we do? We trust the data that has come in, and we trust that there is a low level of fatality, and we rely on individuals to make their own choices.
If you feel like you are at risk, stay home, and when you go out, assume everybody has it, and all contacts will give it to you. If you are like me, and you feel like there is no risk of severe illness to you, then you go out, and you live like normal. BUT, identify the person who feels at risk, and give them the space and the level of interaction that they request.
It is clear to me that a vaccine will never be the choice. The fact that they have never successfully manufactured a coronavirus vaccine is my first reason. But my second reason is that I am not alone. I believe, from the best numbers we can see out there in the world, that no more than 30% of Americans are eager to get a vaccine for Covid-19. But possibly up to 50% would, but even those numbers are a stretch. People do not trust the vaccine to come out safe, nor do they trust it to come out effective, which will reduce the chances of such a vaccine ever providing hope of herd immunity (60% of the population is necessary for such immunity to truly protect the majority of our at-risk population). With scientists ripping on natural immunity, suggesting that it won't be effective for long term immunity, I wonder what they think the difference is with artificial immunity (vaccination). Most diseases with vaccine-based immunity, have demonstrated the need for boosters, or multiple injections in the first months or years of vaccination in order to achieve a level of immune titer (serological testing) that suggests immunity. This alone would suggest that a vaccine will be ineffective to prevent the spread of Covid-19 if indeed natural immunity is truly ineffective. The argument being made against natural immunity is absurd, and will surely be debunked across the board, but the science that supports vaccine is pushing this narrative very strongly right now.
So as I suggested... making this perfectly clear... your hope is to have the world go out into the world and get this virus. Otherwise, you better hope that the warm weather treats it like flu and beats it down. But we would have to assume that just like any flu virus, it will come back strong in October. To be prepared for that time, we need to have people get the virus.